I have a feeling that this thread is beginning to degenerate into an
argument as to just how many Angstroms you can fit on the head of a
pin.
Sorry (smirk). I couldn’t resist.
Andrew Jonathan Fine
If you are talking about commercial mass produced low quality products that won't hold up for long, you are right.
I was eluding to the technology that is being developed currently.
The aim is to do better or at least the same quality as currently
available.
Technology and progress achieves these things.
The main difference is that although the designs are made by us
everything else is done by machine, with more precision and done
faster.
My experience is that the price for CAD CAM and the production of the model to be cast can be twice as expensive as a hand carved model.
Currently growing a wax is more expensive than hand carving it, but
this will change when the printers become better, faster and can
directly print metals.
My opinion is that this is the problem with those who do not have enough experience is the real world of jewelry making and have great concepts, but mediocre execution.
This is the thing, when the new machines come out, jewellers will
start using them (it would be a commercial mistake not to), bringing
their knowledge to the process.
Once this knowledge is in place, either through an apprenticeship
scheme, or more likely through an expert system (I used to program
with an expert system… very cool tech), setting problems,
allowances, and tolerances will be factored in.
The other issue, the first person wanted $2000 for the CAD CAM, milling the model, casting, supplying diamonds surrounding the sapphire, two trillion sapphires set on either side and setting the gems. The person I had used before, $1250. The difference partly was that the higher price included CAD CAM and milling that was $500.
I’ve noticed that when it comes to transferring a design from a 2D
render the designer will charge you a significant sum of money to do
it… sometimes it’s justified, sometimes it’s not. When I was doing
computer support, it was $200 per hour or part thereof (I was
working for someone else I didn’t get paid that, but I will charge
that for leather work 
).
To remedy this situation, you make the 3D model yourself… it’s not
that difficult when you get to grips with whatever software you’re
using.
An example I had printed three sterling silver cogs, two of the cogs
were 15mm diameter, and one was 4mm diameter. If these cogs were to
be for aesthetic value only I would have hand fabricated them
(because I would have wanted to), however they have to mesh
precisely. The 4mm cog has 20 teeth, and the 15mm cog has 90 teeth.
I’m not a watch maker, I don’t have a lathe, and precisely filing 20
teeth in a 4mm cog, let alone 90 teeth in a 15mm cog (and then to
make another 15mm cog), is beyond my skill and definitely beyond what
my sanity could bear.
For the three tiny waxes it cost me $87.00, for the precision
sterling casting it cost me $2.50. If I had provided a 2D image for
CAD it would have cost me $250 more.
It will come to a point where “anyone” can draw up a 3D model of
what they want, the computer will “fix” the model using the knowledge
that contemporary jewellers provide, and you will have the option of
printing the model at home, or at a specialised printing bureau.
If has even been speculated that eventually you wont buy anything
physical (unless you really want to), you’ll just buy the model.
Shoes, clothing, jewellery, tools, pretty much anything you can think
of… even the printers themselves.
This future is relatively close.
How many of you got to a blacksmith for a hand full of nails?
Regards Charles A.
P.S. I do sell nails to customers, but they cost a lot more than what
you can buy from the hardware store
I have wondered about our advancing technologies for some time. I worry about all the people over the world who have been displaced by technology. Have we gone too far? What is to become of all the millions of unemployed? Maybe in the end simple was best for all, everyone's hands were busy. Enough contemplation, back to work.
But still, isn’t that on everyones’ minds the $64,000,000 question?
Part of our civilization’s problem is that we equate both work and
income with identity and self-esteem to an unhealthy degree.
Even though I’m not a Roman Catholic, the intel I’ve gained on them
seems to indicate that they consider every human being to have an
inherent dignity which is independent of the career or weath which
that human possesses.
I agree with them, at least on that regard. Our world even now has
the means to feed everyone a subsistence vegetarian and cereal diet,
give them basic housing, and basic medical care. but the problems
with doing that appear to be mostly political.
We already have the capability to create a post-scarcity society,
but we don’t have the collective political will to do it, and in many
cases, the personal desired.
It seems that being employed is a social norm, where the lack of
employment seems to either be caused by character defects, or even be
a character defect in and of itself. This is capitalism taken to the
degree of Calvinism.
We really shouldn’t look at human beings at way. We have to decouple
a human’s desire for employment, from a human’s need for self-esteem
and survival.
Providing a guarantee to feeding, clothe, shelter, educate, and care
for everyone regardless of income or station everywhere in the world,
would certainly be a good start in that direction.
Niether capitalism nor democracy need to be so merciless that we
subject the vast majority of unemployed people to the truly degrading
conditions we currently see.
Andrew Jonathan Fine
Of course we are more than our work, Andrew. The work ethic is fine
and dandy but too much emphasis has led to suicides in some cases, in
others, depression, sense of loss of self worth when one finds
oneself unemployed. Work is what we do, not what we are. Change
though is painful for many people. But to borrow a quote… “to
resist is futile. You will be assimilated.” Maybe.
Barbara
Cartier wouldn't think of a production line without castings 10 years ago, 10 years from now, CNC waxes (at least) will be just as fundamental.
Well, yes and no, Brian. No because it’s now, not in ten years.
Cartier is CNC as much if not more than anybody in the industry.
From the horses mouth, so to speak…
Hi Carole,
I’ve been given plenty of time to ponder this, as I tend the CNC’s
that crank out most of the parts for the KC saws. Lee and I have
talked about it: 10 years ago, we’d need 6-8 mills and lathes, with
at least 5-6 full time guys to run them. Now, it’s just me, doing the
machining end of things. (Lee does everything else, and that’s
becoming a very large ‘else’ indeed.) 10 years ago, KC would have
been a 10-15 person shop. Now it’s 3-4, most weeks. (We have a couple
of other people who help out with assembly and packaging as they have
time.)
So in that sense, yes the CNC’s are hell on employment: they let one
person be as productive as ten old-school machinist were. On the
other hand, they lower the startup costs of a small business to the
point where it makes it easier for people to start a business where
they might not have previously. If I know that in order to even begin
to make my product, I have to have a 3000 sqft facility, with 8
machines, and ten people who’d be depending on me for their rent,
that’s a mighty big gut check to get over. If it’s just me, a buddy,
and a couple of machines, that’s easier. Yes, CNC’s are much more
expensive, but in a way that’s easier: it’s just money. If it all
goes pear shaped, nobody else is living under a bridge because we
screwed up. The bank repo’s the machine, everybody takes a haircut,
and we all move on.
Equally, CNC’s are really good for repetitive work. The kind of
thing that makes you bughouse crazy if you do it long enough. So it
saves me from the grunt work, and lets me concentrate on the more
creative aspects of what we do. Normally, I get the lathe set up
making clamp parts, and then work on doing the programming for new
parts while it’s cranking away on the old ones. That lets me spend
most of my energy being creative, rather than cranking out the
thousandth front blade clamp this month. Much of the work that was
done ‘in the old days’ was nasty, brutish, and looooong. (to mangle
a quote) Yes, it employed a lot of people, but many of them weren’t
exactly cheerful souls about it. (Talk to some of the folks who
worked at the Ford plant at River Rouge.)
In the long run, I’m not sure what we’re going to do going forward:
there simply won’t be a need for as many workers as we have
available bodies.
Put another way, there won’t be enough useful work to go around.
What that does to a Calvinist country like the US is an interesting
question. We define ourselves entirely by the nature and
remuneration of our jobs. What happens when there simply aren’t
enough decent jobs to go around?
Do we adjust our perceptions to match reality, or do we take refuge
in name calling?
Or do we start employing people simply because they’re cheaper than
a robot? The word ‘robot’ came from the Czech word ‘Robota’ which
meant, (as I understand it) the period of time out of each year that
a serf was required to labor for his feudal lord. (for free, nach.)
Are we willing to go back to that?
If not, then how do we move forward?
Regards,
Brian
Hi gang,
Apropos of the whole “CNC’s and where are we headed?” theme, there
was a really interesting article at The Atlantic last month. It
looks at the value of education in our emerging economy, by way of
looking at two real people, and how they’re fixed. Definitely worth
a read. It was a serious topic on a couple of the machinist’s
boards I read.
The bad news is that nobody could think of a real answer.
Regards,
Brian
I always believed that CNC engineers are like children. One starts their training with CNC toys and once they grow up they can be allowed to work with real machinery.
Yes, it has been called a CNC toy by a few people. I don’t know why.
It’s every bit as expensive as the Makino V22, only downsized to fit
into a laboratory.
You can view it here.
http://www.ganoksin.com/gnkurl/1up
At the bottom is a picture of a part we use to further our research.
So far it is serving its purpose. Any and all inquiries are welcome!
It’s almost as much fun as the e-beam tools.
Jeff Simkins
Microelectronics Engineer
University of Cincinnati
Brian,
Thanks, it was a good honest read. I don’t think anyone has an
answer, as so much has been fostered to propel us to where we are
at. NAFTA, shame on Clinton. Unfortunately, after 25 years of
teaching I don’t think some things have happened by accident and I
think our education system is one of them. They have gutted so many
vocational programs across America that few exist anymore, mine
included. Gearing all students toward a four year college has been a
waste, impractical, and not wanted by many students and communities,
but the education system has a mind of it’s own. We need vocational,
hands on people and they should be held in high regard, not second
class. Vocational classes actually keep kids in school, they see the
practical end of it. I live in a dairy and farming community, our
needs are different than city schools. If we want kids to replace
the aging farmers they need to know machining, welding, etc. I just
read that 30,000 drones have just been authorized for use in America.
The pretext is that they will be able to do many things such as spray
crops, film movies, etc. I wonder where that will led us to, or is
it coming to us? Back to the torch…
Peace,
Carole
Not on topic, but I do believe that Jeffrey Simpkins shows a photo
of a Brussels Griffon! A fellow Griff affectionado? Barbara
Nice toy Jeffery
James Binnion
Or do we start employing people simply because they're cheaper than a robot? The word 'robot' came from the Czech word 'Robota' which meant, (as I understand it) the period of time out of each year that a serf was required to labor for his feudal lord. (for free, nach.) Are we willing to go back to that?
“Humans are the cheapest programmable 150lb robot”…I read this
recently. This statement may be true from a number of viewpoints.
Only problem is humans need to be convinced.
Alastair
Brian - this article by Thomas Friedman in March 11, 2012 New York
times may offer some hope in how we might deal with the problem of
fewer jobs going forward.
The short version is that education of the populace matters far more
than the natural resources of a country. I extrapolate that if we
provide education and daycare, we can get out of this hole. We need
both male and female workers and the current cost of education and
child care is a bigger cost than most kids from less than affluent
homes can ever hope to pay.
The jewelry business we all work in today survives mostly because
the work is labor intensive and the cost of entry into the business
isn’t comparatively high. Today’s cost of a four year college
education varies but falls in the mid five figures - $35,000 to 75,
000. And two years of grad school is another $75,000 and up. To
educate and outfit an individual jeweler is far less than that. How
many of you have spent $100,000 on education and tools? The big
question is how long will our market remain? The personal touch is
impressively important to business as usual.
Judy Hoch
They have gutted so many vocational programs across America that few exist anymore, mine included. Gearing all students toward a four year college has been a waste, impractical, and not wanted by many students and communities, but the education system has a mind of it's own.
Carole’s thoughts are good and to the point, which is why I quoted
her. I would question one thing she mentions, and some of the bias of
Brian’s article (also quite good, if a bit long…). That is, Problem?
What problem? It’s what I call a “wringing of hands” thing - Oh woe
is us… If someone doesn’t like a mechanized, computerized world
industry thenwhat, pray tell, is their alternative? Going back to
Leonid’s horse and buggy world just isn’t going to happen, and you
can sit in your spare bedroom and make rings to your heart’s content
but you’ll never become Cartier, or even Todd Reed, that way. The
world is what it is and we can either adapt or become a smudge in the
road after it runs us over. CNC isn’t the wave of the future, it’s
now and it’s just how it is. That’s not to say that everything in the
world ~should~ be done that way, so don’t write that it is. Factories
are punching out the most efficient, cost effective cars in history
because of it, and millions of other things, and whether any of us
like it or not, that machine has been in motion for so long there’s
no stopping it. And painters still paint and sculptors still sculpt
and whittlers still whittle, too.
Now the even bigger issues of American education, in particular, and
how we hand over a trillion dollars to pirates who single handedly
crashed the world economy while we close schools for lack of money,
and the like, are at least theoretically within our power to change,
and that’s useful to ponder.
But the fact that CNC is the way of industry from now on is not…
"Humans are the cheapest programmable 150lb robot"...I read this recently. This statement may be true from a number of viewpoints. Only problem is humans need to be convinced.
Yeah. The part of that Atlantic article that got me was the poor kid
who had a job only so long as she was cheaper than a loading bot to
do most of her job.
Education. It’s the only way out.
John: I’m not bemoaning CNC, exactly. (which would be odd, given what
I do these days.) but I am concerned about our educational system
leaving so many hung out to dry. Of this, and a “let them eat cake”
mentality, are really nasty revolutions born.
I do essentially the job of the ‘educated’ kid in the Atlantic
article. (Unlike him, I also program them, instead of just running
them.) The machine we use for the clamps is a kissing cousin to the
Gildemisters they mention in the article. Never have needed calculus.
A little trig maybe, but for the complicated tangentals, it’s easier
to just run it past the computer, and let it figure them out. (Which
is what 99% of real programmers do. Better things to waste our time
on than hand calculating.)
What happens when you have an entire country half full of people
who’ll never be able to realize their dreams? Sooner or later,
they’ll realize it. Then what?
Regards,
Brian
CNC isn't the wave of the future, it's now and it's just how it is.
Goes back a bit further than “now”, I think. I wrote Fortran to
generate and optimize CNC programming in the late 60’s.
Al Balmer
Pine City, NY
Going back to Leonid's horse and buggy world just isn't going to happen
There is a saying that to a hammer everything looks like a nail. It
is often the case that technocrats behave like proverbial hammer.
Technology is fine when it is used in the right places. Jewellery is
not one of them. Introduction of technology have only resulted in
diminishing skills and quality. The profits did increased for some,
but it is temporary. Tiffany for instance, after reporting many
profitable quarters, declared a loss. The lost of quality cannot be
concealed anymore. Others companies have experienced similar
effects. The art if hand working cannot be replaced. Technology can
only create facsimile of craftsmanship, but closer examination
reveals the forgery, which is rejected by most, except price
conscious consumers. When it comes to jewellery, we want presence of
human hand. Take a look at watchmaking. Quartz movement are far more
precise than mechanicals ones. So what? Good mechanical movement
commands prices of 20x and higher than far more precise quartz.
Leonid Surpin
Or do we start employing people simply because they're cheaper than a robot? The word 'robot' came from the Czech word 'Robota' which meant, (as I understand it) the period of time out of each year that a serf was required to labor for his feudal lord. (for free, nach.) Are we willing to go back to that?
Sorry I didn’t pick this up earlier.
Robot is a modern word, circa 1920, it is Czech.
Here’s a link :-
Regards Charles A.
P.S. Robots look cool on charm bracelets
What happens when you have an entire country half full of people who'll never be able to realize their dreams? Sooner or later, they'll realize it. Then what?
Well, yeah Brian, that’s the thing. This oligarchy of ours could
become Syria or what Egypt was last year. The real issue at hand
isn’t computerization - Al says today that he was programming in the
60’s, which I know was happening. It’s that at this point the
industry is mature. Your entry level BMW has the tolerances of a
million dolar Indy car of 30 years ago…
In my mind the key to all things is education, and to be effective
education needs to be focused in the right direction. Here in
California, on today’s news, was the fact that thousands of teachers
are getting letters today informing them that there services may no
longer be needed. And yet wereward failure in the financial markets.
I could go on about that but this isn’t the time or place…
America is shooting itself in the foot and then whining about how
much it hurts.
"Now the even bigger issues of American education, in particular, and how we hand over a trillion dollars to pirates who single handedly crashed the world economy while we close schools for lack of money, and the like, are at least theoretically within our power to change, and that's useful to ponder."
Is it time for another “Bomber bake sale”?
Actually we spend more on public education now than any time in the
past, per student as well. Schools get closed for other reasons like
changing demographics but they (public unions) fit it to the
argument of more money needed for schools. The answer is not throwing
more money at schools. Our schools do a poor job with the money we
give them as a whole. Study the Los Angeles public schools system and
you will be shocked at their abysmal record.
I assume by pirates you mean the big banks? Now I admit I am cynical
about the public unions but I was under the impression that much of
the world economic woes is coming from the current crises in Europe
with the PIIGS countries and their insolvency issues as much as the
US’s current economic problems. Europe and the US cannot blame big
banks for their debt crises brought on by each countries massive
deficit spending. It is easy to “cry wolf” with all that is being
charged against the major corporations these days. It is not so easy
to understand that government spending has done us much more harm
than the Dow 30. Now I will be in trouble with all my Orchid
colleagues for arguing politics but I can’t let " trillion dollars to
pirates" pose unchallenged. I am sure that the note was not meant to
be provocative but we as jewelers are involved in a complicated
troubled economy that we need to really understand in order to
survive and hopefully thrive.
Sam