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SNAG vs Flue


#1

Well folks what do we think is going to happen at the SNAG
conference? We are starting to see warnings about attending large
gatherings. Will you go? What would stop you? Do you think attendance
will be down/up?

Bill
Bill Seeley
Reactive Metals Studio, Inc


#2

Bill,

I truly wish that I could be there, but my pennies do not add up.

Hopefully, we are well enough aware to evaluate the media hype on
this Flu. Circumstances and communication levels are far different
from 1918.

It is always possible to meet up with someone’s bug, even on an
escalator in a department store. Why this important meeting/gathering
will be perceived as unwise by some, well it is an individual take on
it all. Hopefully, the SNAG Conference will be well attended, and
give folks a bit of a break from the incessant “when will you call it
a pandemic?” “cool” “smart” “unique” reporter with a microphone in
hand, to any local doctor they can grab, barrage forced upon us,
every minute of every day. Yes, each of these are an "exclusive"
interview.

Me, I am back to melting silver with visions of Snag in my head.

Hugs,
Terrie


#3
Well folks what do we think is going to happen at the SNAG
conference? We are starting to see warnings about attending large
gatherings. Will you go? What would stop you? Do you think
attendance will be down/up? 

Bill, I’d guess that those who are planning to go have already made
travel arrangements and paid the registration. I doubt people will be
cancelling because of the flue worries, but hopefully, we’ll all be
more careful with hygiene, and be sure not to deliberately be
reckless with other’s safety if we find ourselfs fighting something.
As the pres says, caution, not panic.

What I DO think might affect attendance is simply the economy. With
money tight, there will be some people who otherwise might have come,
but who’ll decide they can’t afford it this year. I know I had to
scrape pretty hard to justify this expense, though the location (I
went to Tyler for grad school) had pretty much preordained I was
gonna be there come hell, high water, or the flu…

Besides, these things often have a lot of students as attendees.
When have you ever known college students to worry much about things
like the flu. They are, as we all knew and believed, when we were
that age, totally impervious to such ills. Other people, perhaps. But
not us…

See ya there.
Peter


#4
I'd guess that those who are planning to go have already made
travel arrangements and paid the registration.

I’d have to agree with Peter on this one, those who were planning to
come will be there. The flu has nothing to do with any previous
arrangements. In 50 states, there have only been 150 ill - and it’s
not sure that all 150 have the flu, nor does anyone really know what
kind of flu (sore throat, coughing, temps - gee, that sounds like
general illness to me.- ] the number of ill in Mexico is down…and
there are actually rumors that are state the “flu” isn’t mutating -
so maybe it can be controlled?


#5

Hi Bill:

My tickets are bought and paid for, so I’m going. I’ll see you there.
Bring cool toys.

If I’ve shaved off my beard, and am wearing a full-face respirator,
you know I’m taking it seriously. Besides, I like the darth-vader
sound effects of the big respirator…

Cheers-
Brian.


#6

I’m also headed for SNAG. My pin swap this year is Purel, and
photoetched pins of the H1N1 bacteria on pierced pigs.

Snort. Can’t wait to go, it will be sooo much fun. Haven’t been in
three years. Just me hangin with my friends.

karen
Who is in NYC getting ready to bike with 35,000 people on Sunday for
the 5 Borough Ride.


#7
I'd have to agree with Peter on this one, those who were planning
to come will be there. The flu has nothing to do with any previous
arrangements. In 50 states, there have only been 150 ill - and
it's not sure that all 150 have the flu, nor does anyone really
know what kind of flu (sore throat, coughing, temps - gee, that
sounds like general illness to me.- ] the number of ill in Mexico
is down...and there are actually rumors that are state the "flu"
isn't mutating - so maybe it can be controlled? 

Numbers are confusing. At one point, they were reporting 150 dead in
mexico. Then I saw the report that only a dozen of those were
actually confirmed to be due to the flu. The others? Anyones guess.
severe respiratory distress isn’t so uncommon in Mexico city when
pollution gets bad. It’s also possible that there are a LOT of
unreported mild cases, so then the mortality rate, though visible and
worrisome, might not be any higher for this bug than for other
versions.

So it’s quite possible that this new bug is no more virulent than
the usual seasonal varieties. But this IS a new variety, worrisome in
part because we likely have no immunity yet, nor is a vaccine
available yet, leaving us feeling more vulnerable. And in truth, we
just don’t yet know enough about this flu to be confident in
predicting anything, and that uncertainty itself is highly
unsettling. But even the ordinary yearly flu versions every year
kill a lot of people. We’ve gotten used to those numbers as normal,
so we don’t hear so much about it unless it deviates from expected
patterns, as this one has done with it’s late spring arrival.

Bottom line is, at this point, simple. Take the ordinary prudent
precautions we should all take anyway, any time there’s a flu running
around. We often ignore those, thinking “it’s just the flu”, but the
flu, even mild versions, is not trivial. Maybe this is a good
reminder for us in general

Peter


#8
Numbers are confusing. At one point, they were reporting 150 dead
in Mexico. 

Lies Dammed Lies and Statistics.

On CNN they had a talking head from the who that was saying oh it’s
all an overblown mistake, there are over a thousand cases who had it
and only 6 dead.

Like everything it depends how you measure it…

Over a thousand dead and 138 dead (which were the numbers when I
looked it up) based on clinical diagnosis in Hospitals

Or 38 Sick with it and 6 dead based on laboratory confirmed
diagnoses.

What the talking head was doing was mixing data from 2 different
datasets… a big no no, thus a lie.

But even the first of over a thousand and 138 is a lie too if we are
looking at pure mortality rate in the population… These numbers
are from reported cases in hospitals, Mexico has no reporting system
for all the mild cases that never made it to the hospital… So the
mortality rate only reflects those sick enough to go to the hospital.
The cases reported in Canada and the US so far have been ALL cases.
The true mortality rate is probably similar to that of the regular
flu. Also the only US mortality was a very sick Mexican girl whose
parents rushed her into Texas hoping the US hospital could save
her… and thus should properly be counted as a Mexican mortality not
a US one.

now that you have all let out a big breath and thought , remember
the 1918 pandemic came in multiple waves, the first wave was mild and
had a very low mortality rate and had run it’s course when a second
wave appeared. That one was the killer. What happened?? It is
theorized, since we don’t have viral samples from both waves that are
identified, first that a mild H1N1 flu went pandemic and then there
was a mutation the was significant enough to make the original virus
no longer be recognizable to the human body’s immune system. Thus the
immunity from the first infection did not help. Secondly the mutation
made it a much nastier bug that instead of attacking the upper
respiratory tract as most flu bugs do, it started attacking inside
the lungs at the level of the alveoli provoking the body’s massive
immune response which is what actually killed the people.

So what can we learn from all this, In my opinion?

First be moderate, if one or two Talking heads are screaming about
the end of the world relax, if 99% are then worry. Unfortunately
Between the 24 hour news channels now (BBC, CNN, MSNBC, FOX, CBC
News world, and Al Jazeera) the louder and more radical one is, the
more coverage they seem to get, So volume is no indicator of
legitimacy or knowledge. Second, If the person is saying something
like “oh it’s going to be the end of the world, unless you give me
lots of money to save it”. Recognize it for what it is, a money and
power grab. Third, Enjoy life. Worry about the things that are
important and don’t sweat the small stuff. Which is more important or
dangerous… Dying from the flu or dying from being struck by a
vehicle… Check the mortality rates. The car is a greater danger to
you than a bug. But even more important is to tell and show your
family you love them.

Kay

PS I refer to them as talking heads because that’s all they seem to
show on the TV is the head and often it seems as if it’s just an
empty inflated head with no brain but a very high opinion of their
beliefs…


#9

Ha! I thought that “Flue” was a new blacksmithing Org or some such
thing! “Flu” is the spelling for the illness, as far as I know, here
in the US.

Marianne Hunter
http://www.hunter-studios.com


#10

Hi Bill, Karen, Peter, Brian and all

I’m also headed for the SNAG conference. I spent too much time on
making my pins for the pin-swap (I made 50) !

Karen, keep one of your pierced pigs for me please! (I’ll give you
one of my pins PLUS some Belgian chocolates!!!. Also valid for any
other Orchid member who’s reading this.) We’ll have fun and keep the
bugs away.

See you soon,
Linda Savineau (Belgium)