wasn't a jeweler in 1983 when gold hit $1,000, but I talked to
other jewelers who were around then, and they said work stopped,
just as it has now.
I was just getting serious with goldsmithing around then. Business
did just stop, just like it did about two and a half years ago. It’s
almost like someone just turned off the switch. The difference
between then and now is that in the early eighties, when gold (and
silver a little later, thanks to the Hunt Brothers) spiked, it was a
steep spike, and even though it didn’t go all the way back to where
it was, it dropped back down almost as fast as it rose. Then it
stayed there. For decades. Business was back to normal in a year or
so and really started cranking up to new high levels very shortly
thereafter. In fact, the several years following starting in the
mid-eighties until the early nineties were some of the strongest
years for growth in the jewelry business that we have ever known. It
kicked off a whole new generation of goldsmiths, pocket jewelers and
would-be retailers much like the post-WW2 era Kevin speaks of.
Everyone was selling jewelry. This time around though, metals have
spiked, stayed there a little while and spiked again. And it looks
like they’re starting to do the same thing again right now. This
time, it isn’t any fun at all, there was no drop after the spike and
business isn’t picking up anywhere near like it did in the 80’s, for
anyone in any business. I personally see no end in sight.
Competition for the primo-bench job is going to be a bear this time
around. 2011 isn’t going to be another 1986 for the pro benchie.
I’m sure the same kind of thing happened in the early thirties as
now, although as Kevin points out, jewelry wasn’t the staple of the
middle class nearly as much then as it is now. But during the time of
The Great Depression, some of the most beautiful jewelry ever created
was being made. Then as now, and since the birth of mankind until its
end, there will always be the poor. But there will always be the
wealthy too and their numbers now are much greater than most people
think (by wealthy I mean someone that can spend $20 or 30K or more on
a nice piece of jewelry every year or two). A lot of them are just a
little afraid to display that kind of buying power right now and many
have gone underground a little bit; they seem to feel they have a
great big bull’s eye on their backs. Too many people now consider
them to be the enemy that must be gotten even with, rather than their
best customers to whom they should try to sell their very best as
was always the goal in the past.
People that appreciate fine craftsmanship, the finest in materials
and classic, fashion forward design will always be here and they will
be more than willing to pay for the best. Those folks that love
jewelry but can’t afford the best, the product of the Industrial
Revolution as Kevin described, are here to stay and will continue to
be a significant part of the jewelry buying public, but they will
demand far more of their jewelry dollar. The line between these two
groups will probably continue to widen, making the work of the
mediocre goldsmith unwanted. The number of fully employed goldsmiths
(doing work to their full potential) will probably not grow
appreciably in the near to mid-future. But the goldsmith that
demands the most of him/herself, will be in the best position to
cater to both of those groups.
There is no lack of work for those that excel in any of the jewelry
trades, in fact the future is quite bright. For those that don’t
excel, things are only going to get worse. We’ve seen how this plays
out in the number of retail jewelry stores (many of which opened
during the post-80’s-gold-spike boom) that have closed their doors in
the last few years. The good ones, the ones that paid attention to
their costs and their customers needs and desires, that were able to
adapt to new strategies, survived. Those that looked at things more
traditionally and weren’t able or willing to adapt, got squeezed out
in large numbers. I think we are going to see, if were not already
seeing, the world of the professional goldsmith following much the
same path.
“The cream always rises to the top” is still a valuable metaphor
that will be proven true once again. The harder the times, the
tougher the competition, the more true it becomes. This is why some
of the finest jewelry ever created was made when times were the
hardest. Even the cheap costume jewelry of the time is among the
finest ever made. Only the best of the best goldsmiths were still
around to create it.
If you (Neil’s all-encompassing you) want to be successful as a
metalsmith in the near and mid-future, you will have to be the best
you can be, and then get a little bit better. If you’re not willing
to really put your all into it, someone else will, and they’ll get
the job(s) you want. Employers are hiring with increasing strength
and retailers are looking for quality custom and trade shops like
they never have before, but they’re only hiring the cream, not only
in breadth of skill and craftsmanship, but in attitude - customer
service is still alive, well and thriving. They are merely following
their customers’ lead and are looking for the biggest bang for their
buck in a world full of mediocrity. Any goldsmith willing to be a
big bang for the buck is going to be just fine.
Dave Phelps