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Planning for Christmas?


#1

Its August. The stock market is panicky. Home values are down. Good
Grief!

So why am I so busy? I don’t get it, it defies logic. Business is
uncharacteristically good. While sales out of the cases are soft,
custom and special order are very good.

I experienced a similar kind of thing in 1987. Bought my first store
four days before Black Monday, Kaboom… peptobismal time! Yet
business increased the following year about 25%.

All of which makes me leery about this coming Christmas season.
Should I plan on riding the wave and hope it pans out? Or be
conservative and keep my accounts payable low?..rush like mad for
goods at the last minute if demand is strong? Or gamble that having
the goods in place early will be rewarding?

How many of you have started planning the final quarter and what are
you anticipating? Got any special promos in mind? How do you think
the season will turn out?


#2
Its August. The stock market is panicky. Home values are down.
Good Grief! 

Good grief indeed :slight_smile: Don’t panic. The stock market is down? Look
again - currently it’s down a few hundred points after thousands of
points rise. Home values? They’re still above the pre-boom values of
a couple of years ago. Unless you’re a short-term speculator who
guesses wrong, things are great. Our economy is the best it’s ever
been.

All of which makes me leery about this coming Christmas season.
Should I plan on riding the wave and hope it pans out? Or be
conservative and keep my accounts payable low?...rush like mad for
goods at the last minute if demand is strong? Or gamble that
having the goods in place early will be rewarding? 

Up to you - you can stick with good conservative business practice,
unless you want to get into the short-term speculation business. If
you do, you can make a fortune. Or lose your shirt. Or something in
between.

Disclaimer: My business experience is running a small computer
consulting company - I know nothing about retail.

Al Balmer
Sun City, AZ


#3

I learned years ago (in another life) as a realtor - there is no
"good" or “bad” market. There is “only a market” and you work in it.
I sold real estate when mortgage rates were 3 1/2% and also when
rates were 22%. I don’t think anyone can anticipate what the future
of the market will be. Heavens in several months we could have won a
million dollars or lost everything. I gave up worrying about what has
not yet come to pass. I’ll deal with it when it arrives. BTW I was
also a stock broker at the time the Dow first hit 1000 and no one
ever thought it would get where it is now.

Just live and stop worrying. Do your best and the rest will follow.

K


#4

Having been thru about 30 years of Christmas jewelry seasons, and
seen a few ups and downs, my personal opinion is that when the
general public sees evidence of possible chaos, a certain portion of
them turn towards better value in the way of things more lasting for
their dollar. Business has been very good for us pretty much all year
long - especially thru the summer. All signs say GO! here. Going to
Columbus, Ohio show next weekend, and plan on buying alot of thin
fancy gold chain, maybe some more Journey stuff. Have started
getting stones matched up for alot of ring and pendant castings,
mostly color, but also a fair amount of diamond pendants, rings are
in the works as well. I think it will be a good season for those of
us who have a steady clientele that shops with us because of trust.
Thats where they feel like they are getting the most value for their
shattered dollar. And, like always, what matters most is the age old
advice- “Location, location, location”

Ed in Kokomo


#5

Just a quick question for Ed: what show are you coming to in Columbus
Ohio? I’d love to check it out. Thanks. And thanks to everyone for
all the great info I’ve received. Has helped me in making some good
decisions.


#6

I just came to the realization today(Monday) that I missed the show.
It was this past weekend, and I was setting in a hospital room with
my wife, and her mother-very very ill, and the family came in from
around the country to see their mother before she’s gone. Been a
tuff, tuff week. Today, I looked at the calendar to get a date for a
customers job, and saw a little square that said “Columbus show-18,
19th” and thought oh oh! Seems that this next week is going to be as
hard as the last one.

Ed in Kokomo


#7

Now I’m seriously confused. After sending my last message, I opened
an email from a vendor from the Columbus show, and it clearly states
Aug 25-26, yet my calendar at work clearly says 18-19. I just now
checked the Ohio Jewelers Association website,
http://www.ohiojewelers.org/, and it states “25-26”. Incidently, its
held at the Columbus Convention Center, downtown. It is strictly for
the trade only so documentation is definetly required for entry,
since it is a Jewelers of America(JA) sponsored show.
Preregistration is a good idea.

Ed in Kokomo