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Fourth quarter stategy?


#1

There’s been talk of stocking up on gold/silver now that prices have
come down some. Well you all saw the sudden spike recently, some felt
the sting no doubt. This is still a volatile world economy. There’s
no predicting anything.

It might be far safer to pull your horns in. Don’t commit to
anything you don’t have to. OK, stocks surged a lot the last coupla
days. A good sign but so what? It only emphasizes the volatility.
What’s coming next? Times like these are better spent avoiding
catastrophe. When things are on an even keel, that’s when you should
look to expand.

elements to success in the jewelry business. Survival and
exploitation. You survive in rough times by being conservative. Live
to fight another day. When you’re in an up market, exploit it for all
its worth. Grab the ball and run like hell.

That’s fine but you need material today. What if you buy at $800 and
it drops to 600? One thing you can do is cost averaging. Buy it as
you need it. This will temper that high spots but also raise the
lows. Either way its a safer bet. Turn around orders as quick as you
can. Make your profit in smaller guaranteed bites rather than
hoping/waiting for the big score.

This may sound timid to some. Of course if you’re lucky enough to
have a thriving business, then by all means keep going. But be wary
of sudden changes.

I, myself, wonder if I’m nearing the cusp of exploiting/surviving
modes. Maybe I listen to too much news. Things are still pretty good
but I’m reluctant to build inventory for December because I hear
disheartening things on the financial reports. My general price
points might be a little out of whack if people get even more
concerned about the future, I dunno. So should I invest in lower
price points or should I be prepared to discount what I already own?
The former means more cash outlay, the latter means less return on
investment. Each carries risk. What if I invest in lower price
points and they don’t respond? On the other hand I have to show new
merchandise for the high rollers.

For those who sell to retailers…I suggest you call early, call
often. Give memo with orders if you can.

Well anyway, thanks for listening while I organize my thoughts.