Daniel,
we are twin sons by different mothers.
I think we’d agree there is a kind of collective consciousness out
there that we have to deal with. Whether folks are genuinely and
immediately effected in the bankbook by what’s going on, the
certainty is that they have or shortly will, cut spending. They have
the mindset to be conservative, nothing I can do or say will affect
that, it will change in its own good time. Like many recessions it
kind of waves around the country (the world in this case) and will
impact you at a different time and perhaps in some different way than
it will me(or Joe The Jeweler in Tulsa).
Everybody’s clientele is a bit different than the next guy’s. My
people mostly hop the train to NYC where they(hopefully still) have
finance or stock related jobs. Quite a few others are in local real
estate. So even if they are still working maybe their department
already suffered layoffs or they discounted their bonus or their 401K
took a nosedive, and they’re going to be careful, Can’t blame them.
So, we’re faced with what to do.
In the past what has often caused me the most trouble is the one-two
punch. If you take just one big hit and you have reserves you stand a
good chance of getting back up. Use up those reserves and then get
slammed again you are in for a spot of trouble.
As I see it, a business has three sources of capital. Cash on hand,
future sales, and credit. Forecasts for future sales are shaky at
best, basically its ‘who knows’? Credit, umm I wouldn’t count on bank
credit, trade credit yes but even that’s going to get scarcer as some
players just won’t be able to offer the terms we once got because
they can’t get the terms from their bank, maybe. Cash on hand. I
think its wise to try to keep it ‘on hand’.
Like you say I service the heck out of my customers. The very
essence of goodwill. Doesn’t really cost me much more to do so, at
least not as an identifiable line item. The long term benefit is that
it has a momentum all its own. I don’t have to spend $whatever ad
budget just to get people in the door. People are walking in here
concerned about how I’m doing. People like to buy from friends, a
basic sales fact. The new guy about to open his high expenditure
jewelry store down the street doesn’t have that kind of goodwill
(Talk about bad timing!) It’ll take him some 2-3 years to begin to
gather it. Will he make it thru the recession? If he has considerable
capital lying around yeah maybe, but what kind of hole did he dig for
himself?
I’m doing OK because I PLANNED for this. I knew the economy would
tank at some point. It always does! I just didn’t know when and I
certainly didn’t see this coming until it did. Its easy to make
money when things are good but they don’t always stay that way. By
remaining financially flexible (ie. avoiding high debt) my business
doesn’t have the stress on it I might have imposed had I bought up a
storm earlier this year when it seemed like gravy train time. I
don’t have to crank out volume every month just to stay afloat.
Making sales in December is great but its far better to be solvent in
January.
So, your business model works for you and I’m glad, we have
interesting conversations. Mine works for me. Anybody listening
would hopefully apply any points to his/her own business based not on
"It works for so and so" but rather “That will or will not work for
ME because…”
Boy, I just gave myself a pretty good pep talk. I feel better
already!